Emergy as a Life Cycle Impact Assessment Indicator

Founded in thermodynamics and systems ecology, emergy evaluation is a method to associate a product with its dependencies on all upstream environmental and resource flows using a common unit of energy. Emergy is thus proposed as an indicator of aggregate resource use for life cycle assessment (LCA). An LCA of gold mining, based on an original life cycle inventory of a large gold mine in Peru, is used to demonstrate how emergy can be incorporated as an impact indicator into a process‐based LCA model. The results demonstrate the usefulness of emergy in the LCA context. The adaptation of emergy evaluation, traditionally performed outside of the LCA framework, requires changes to the conventional accounting rules and the incorporation of uncertainty estimations of the emergy conversion factors, or unit emergy values. At the same time, traditional LCA boundaries are extended to incorporate the environmental processes that provide for raw resources, including ores. The total environmental contribution to the product, doré, is dominated by mining and metallurgical processes and not the geological processes forming the gold ore. The measure of environmental contribution to 1 gram (g) of doré is 6.8E + 12 solar‐equivalent Joules (sej) and can be considered accurate within a factor of 2. These results are useful in assessing a process in light of available resources, which is essential to measuring long‐term sustainability. Comparisons are made between emergy and other measures of resource use, and recommendations are made for future incorporation of emergy into LCA that will result in greater consistency with existing life cycle inventory (LCI) databases and other LCA indicators.     

Courting disaster: How diversification rate affects fitness under risk

Life is full of risk. To deal with this uncertainty, many organisms have evolved bet-hedging strategies that spread risk through phenotypic diversification. These rates of diversification can vary by orders of magnitude in different species. Here we examine how key characteristics of risk and organismal ecology affect the fitness consequences of variation in diversification rate. We find that rapid diversification is strongly favored when the risk faced has a wide spatial extent, with a single disaster affecting a large fraction of the population. This advantage is especially great in small populations subject to frequent disaster. In contrast, when risk is correlated through time, slow diversification is favored because it allows adaptive tracking of disasters that tend to occur in series. Naturally evolved diversification mechanisms in diverse organisms facing a broad array of environmental risks largely support these results. The theory presented in this article provides a testable ecological hypothesis to explain the prevalence of slow stochastic switching among microbes and rapid, within-clutch diversification strategies among plants and animals.     

No substitute for real data: A cautionary note on the use of phylogenies from birth–death polytomy resolvers for downstream comparative analyses

The statistical estimation of phylogenies is always associated with uncertainty, and accommodating this uncertainty is an important component of modern phylogenetic comparative analysis. The birth–death polytomy resolver is a method of accounting for phylogenetic uncertainty that places missing (unsampled) taxa onto phylogenetic trees, using taxonomic information alone. Recent studies of birds and mammals have used this approach to generate pseudoposterior distributions of phylogenetic trees that are complete at the species level, even in the absence of genetic data for many species. Many researchers have used these distributions of phylogenies for downstream evolutionary analyses that involve inferences on phenotypic evolution, geography, and community assembly. I demonstrate that the use of phylogenies constructed in this fashion is inappropriate for many questions involving traits. Because species are placed on trees at random with respect to trait values, the birth–death polytomy resolver breaks down natural patterns of trait phylogenetic structure. Inferences based on these trees are predictably and often drastically biased in a direction that depends on the underlying (true) pattern of phylogenetic structure in traits. I illustrate the severity of the phenomenon for both continuous and discrete traits using examples from a global bird phylogeny.     

Fluctuations in nuclear envelope’s potential mediate synchronization of early neural activity

Neural progenitor cells and developing neurons show periodic, synchronous Ca²⁺ rises even before synapse formation, and the origin of the synchronous activity remains unknown. Here, fluorescence measurement revealed that the membrane potential of the nuclear envelope, which forms an intracellular Ca²⁺ store, changed with a release of Ca²⁺ and generated spontaneous, periodic bursts of fluctuations in potential. Furthermore, changes in the nuclear envelope’s potential underlay spike burst generations. These results support the model that voltage fluctuations of the nuclear envelope synchronize Ca²⁺ release between cells and also function as a current noise generator to cause synchronous burst discharges.     

Bayesian adaptive survey protocols for resource management

Transparency in resource management decisions requires a proper accounting of uncertainty at multiple stages of the decision-making process. As information becomes available, periodic review and updating of resource management protocols reduces uncertainty and improves management decisions. One of the most basic steps to mitigating anthropogenic effects on populations is determining if a population of a species occurs in an area that will be affected by human activity. Species are rarely detected with certainty, however, and falsely declaring a species absent can cause improper conservation decisions or even extirpation of populations. We propose a method to design survey protocols for imperfectly detected species that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty in the detection process, is capable of quantitatively incorporating expert opinion into the decision-making process, allows periodic updates to the protocol, and permits resource managers to weigh the severity of consequences if the species is falsely declared absent. We developed our method using the giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas), a threatened species precinctive to the Central Valley of California, as a case study. Survey date was negatively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake, and water temperature was positively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake at a sampled location. Reporting sampling effort, timing and duration of surveys, and water temperatures would allow resource managers to evaluate the probability that the giant gartersnake occurs at sampled sites where it is not detected. This information would also allow periodic updates and quantitative evaluation of changes to the giant gartersnake survey protocol. Because it naturally allows multiple sources of information and is predicated upon the idea of updating information, Bayesian analysis is well-suited to solving the problem of developing efficient sampling protocols for species of conservation concern. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Climate change,uncertainty, and natural resource management

Climate change and its associated uncertainties are of concern to natural resource managers. Although aspects of climate change may be novel (e.g., system change and nonstationarity), natural resource managers have long dealt with uncertainties and have developed corresponding approaches to decision-making. Adaptive resource management is an application of structured decision-making for recurrent decision problems with uncertainty, focusing on management objectives, and the reduction of uncertainty over time. We identified 4 types of uncertainty that characterize problems in natural resource management. We examined ways in which climate change is expected to exacerbate these uncertainties, as well as potential approaches to dealing with them. As a case study, we examined North American waterfowl harvest management and considered problems anticipated to result from climate change and potential solutions. Despite challenges expected to accompany the use of adaptive resource management to address problems associated with climate change, we conclude that adaptive resource management approaches will be the methods of choice for managers trying to deal with the uncertainties of climate change. © 2010 The Wildlife Society.     

Technical note: Comparability of Hrdlička's Catalog of crania data based on measurement landmark definitions

Archival sources of data are critical anthropological resources that inform inferences about human biology and evolutionary history. Craniometric data are one of the most widely available sources of information on human population history because craniometrics were critical in early 20th century debates about race and biological variation. As such, extensive databases of raw craniometric data were published at the same time that the field was working to standardize measurement protocol. Hrdli?ka published between 10 and 16 raw craniometric variables for over 8,000 individuals in a series of seven catalogs throughout his career. With a New World emphasis, Hrdli?ka's data complement those of Howells ( 1973 , 1989 ) and the two databases have been combined in the past. In this note we verify the consistency of Hrdli?ka's measurement protocol throughout the Catalog series and compare these definitions to those used by Howells. We conclude that 12 measurements are comparable throughout the Catalogs, with five of these equivalent to Howells' measurements: maximum cranial breadth (XCB), basion‐bregma height (BBH), maximum bizygomatic breadth (ZYB), nasal breadth (NLB), and breadth of the upper alveolar arch (MAB). Most of Hrdli?ka's measurements are not strictly comparable to those of Howells, thus limiting the utility of combined datasets for multivariate analysis. Four measurements are inconsistently defined by Hrdli?ka and we recommend not using these data: nasal height, orbit breadth, orbit height, and menton‐nasion height. This note promotes Hrdli?ka's tireless efforts at data collection and re‐emphasizes observer error as a legitimate concern in craniometry as the field shifts to morphometric digital data acquisition. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2011. © 2011 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

激光危害与安全标准

激光具有很多优良的特性,已经广泛用于工业和医学领域。但是激光也具有一些固有的危害,使用激光仪器时需要有新的安全规章和防范措施。目前我国与激光安全相关的立法和规章还很不完善。本文介绍了国际上通常采用的美国ANSI Z135标准,希望可以为激光操作者和激光仪器设计者提供参考。     

Uncertainty Analysis of Pesticide Residues in Drinking Water Risk Assessment

Pesticide residues in drinking water can vary significantly from day to day. However, water quality monitoring performed under the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) at most community water systems (CWSs) is typically limited to four data points per year over a few years. Due to this limited sampling, likely maximum residues may be underestimated in risk assessment. In this work, a statistical methodology is proposed to study two types of uncertainties in observed samples and their propagated effect in risk estimates. The methodology was demonstrated using data from 16 CWSs that have three independent databases of atrazine residue to estimate the uncertainty of risk in infants and children. The results showed that in 85% of the CWSs, chronic risks predicted with the proposed approach may be two- to four-folds higher than that predicted with the current approach, wheras intermediate risks may be two- to three-folds higher in 50% of the CWSs. In 12% of the CWSs, however, the proposed methodology showed a lower intermediate risk. A closed-form solution of propagated uncertainty was developed to demonstrate the number of years (seasons) of data and sampling frequency needed to reduce the uncertainty of risk estimates. In general, this methodology provided good insight into the importance of addressing uncertainty of observed water quality data and the need to predict likely maximum residues in risk assessment.     

Comparison of micrometer‐ and scanning electron microscope‐based measurements of avian eggshell thickness

ABSTRACT The study of avian eggshell structure, including composition, pigmentation, thickness, and strength, has important ecological and economic implications. Previous investigators have used a variety of techniques to derive either direct measures or indirect estimates of eggshell thickness. Assessing the repeatability and method agreement of different techniques is necessary to permit comparison of eggshell thickness values from different studies on various genetic stocks, populations, and species. We recorded and analyzed measurements of eggshell thickness using two methods, micrometers and scanning electron microscopy (SEM), for several Palaeognathae and Neognathae taxa, including nonpasserines and passerines. Applying a tolerance‐interval approach, we found that repeatability of measurements for eggs with thinner shells (<300 μm, all Neognathae taxa) was worse than for eggs with thicker shells (Palaeognathae taxa), but was still statistically and biologically reasonable given that the relative magnitude of intramethod agreements was <11%. Our results support previous predictions that measurements made using a micrometer are comparable to those made using SEM. This finding is particularly important given the relative ease and cost efficiency of the micrometer method. Importantly, these new analyses can be used to validate the use of published data from previous studies of micrometer‐based eggshell thickness for both intra‐ and interspecific comparisons.